Turkey’s Rewarming Ties With Iran
Thursday October 6, 2016
The two countries appear to be compartmentalizing their shared and divergent interests in Syria and Iraq, but such an approach is highly vulnerable to unexpected military incidents and other factors.
Turkish and Iranian officials have conducted a number of high-level bilateral visits recently, suggesting that the two countries are drawing closer after a period of serious disagreements over Iraq and Syria. What is driving this rewarming, and how sustainable is it?
FROM THE AKP TO THE ARAB SPRING
Turkish-Iranian ties blossomed in the last decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Whereas previous, secular-based Turkish governments took a dim view of Iran, the Islamist-rooted AKP sought to build the relationship after coming to power in 2002. High-level visits and trade deals ensued, and by 2010, the United States was urging Ankara to help mediate an abortive nuclear deal with Iran called the “Tehran Agreement.” When Washington later found that deal unsatisfactory, Turkey voted against the subsequent U.S.-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council that increased sanctions on Iran.
Yet relations between Ankara and Tehran began to deteriorate when the Arab Spring uprisings broke out in 2011. They were particularly at odds over Syria’s civil war — Turkey threw its lot behind the rebels, whereas Iran stood fast with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, its long-time client. As a result, they became locked in a proxy war, with Ankara arming and sheltering the rebels, Tehran funding Assad’s military and sending forces to fight on his behalf, and both countries issuing fierce public criticisms of each other’s stance in Syria.
Differences have also arisen over Iraq, where Turkey’s warm ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have angered the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and its ally in Tehran. Moreover, Iraq has taken issue with Turkey’s encroachment into the country’s Sunni Arab northern region. Most recently, Baghdad — with Iran’s backing — asked Turkey to evacuate the Bashiqa base near Mosul where Ankara has built a military presence in recent years.
EASING THE TENSION
In the past few weeks, Ankara and Tehran have signaled that are trying to set aside their differences. Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu traveled to Tehran on August 18 after his Iranian counterpart...